Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) has become a significant global health crisis, leading to approximately one million deaths annually since 1990, which totals around 36 million deaths over the decades. Projections suggest that this crisis could cause more than 39 million additional deaths by 2050, translating to roughly three deaths per minute.
This alarming trend is based on findings from a comprehensive study led by the Global Research on Antimicrobial Resistance (GRAM) Project, a collaboration between the University of Oxford and the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington.
The study, which analyzed 520 million health records across 204 countries, provided detailed forecasts on the impact of 22 pathogens, 84 pathogen-drug combinations, and 11 infectious syndromes. This extensive analysis highlighted the severity of AMR, shedding light on its global implications and the urgent need for effective intervention strategies. The study’s findings were recently published in *The Lancet*, underscoring the critical nature of the issue.
Antimicrobial resistance occurs when bacteria and other microorganisms evolve to withstand the effects of medications designed to kill them, creating what is known as “superbugs.” This resistance makes infections harder or impossible to treat, posing severe risks to modern medical practices that rely on antibiotics for successful outcomes in surgeries, organ transplants, and care for vulnerable patients.
Jasmine Riviere Marcelin, an infectious diseases expert, emphasized that without effective antibiotics, medical advancements could be at risk, potentially reverting to pre-antibiotic conditions where simple infections were often fatal.
Despite the overall increase in AMR-related deaths, there has been a notable reduction in mortality among children under five, thanks to childhood vaccination programs and improvements in water, sanitation, and hygiene.
However, the situation has worsened for older adults, with AMR-related deaths among those aged 70 and above increasing by over 80% since 1990. The study projects that while deaths among younger children will continue to decline, fatalities among the elderly will more than double by 2050.
Geographically, the highest increases in AMR-related deaths have been observed in western sub-Saharan Africa, tropical Latin America, high-income North America, Southeast Asia, and South Asia. This regional variation highlights the uneven impact of AMR and the need for tailored strategies to address the crisis effectively in different parts of the world.
To combat AMR, global health leaders are preparing to discuss strategies at the UN General Assembly, focusing on infection prevention and control, new vaccines, and improved sanitation.
Experts advocate for vaccination against diseases like pneumonia, influenza, and COVID-19, alongside antimicrobial stewardship to ensure the judicious use of antibiotics. While developing new antibiotics is crucial, it is equally important to control the spread of resistant organisms and practice careful antibiotic use to protect this vital medical resource and continue advancing healthcare.
