A recent study suggests that humanity may have reached the upper limits of life expectancy. Advances in medical technology and genetic research have helped more people live longer, including those reaching the age of 100, but these developments aren’t leading to significant increases in overall lifespan.
The study, led by S. Jay Olshansky from the University of Illinois-Chicago, highlights that in countries with the longest-living populations, improvements in life expectancy are slowing. The findings indicate that it may be time to reconsider assumptions about retirement age and the financial planning needed for an extended lifespan.
The study focused on life expectancy data from 1990 to 2019, examining countries known for having long life spans, such as Australia, France, Japan, and Switzerland. The U.S. was also included in the research, not because it ranks among the top countries for life expectancy, but due to previous predictions that the U.S. might experience a dramatic surge in life expectancy.
Despite the advances in healthcare and technology, the U.S. does not see significant improvement in its life expectancy, particularly due to challenges such as drug overdoses, obesity, and healthcare inequalities.
One of the key findings is that while women still live longer than men, the rate of improvement in life expectancy has slowed considerably over the years. In the 1990s, life expectancy increased by about 2½ years per decade, but this slowed to just 1½ years per decade in the 2010s.
In some countries like the U.S., this rate of improvement has been almost negligible. Researchers also calculated that even if all deaths before age 50 were eliminated, life expectancy would increase by only a modest 1½ years, indicating that factors such as aging are now more limiting.
The study suggests that aging itself may be the primary barrier to further gains in lifespan. Despite medical advancements, it appears that we are reaching a natural limit in how much longer people can live.
Although many people today are living to 100, this is largely due to population growth, and the percentage of people who reach this milestone will remain small. The study estimates that in most countries, fewer than 15% of women and 5% of men will reach the age of 100, despite the fact that the number of centenarians is likely to increase in the future.
Experts agree with the study’s conclusion that life expectancy may not rise much higher. Eileen Crimmins, a gerontology expert at the University of Southern California, expressed concern over the U.S.’s declining relative position in life expectancy.
The study calls for a reevaluation of retirement planning, healthcare policies, and the financial resources needed to support longer lives. With the current advancements in medicine and technology squeezing out smaller increases in lifespan, it is clear that we may have reached a plateau in human longevity.
